Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the tension triggered by the presentation of a new comprehensive peace framework for ending the war appeared – temporarily – to have been stabilised. A senior US official spoke of "significant advancement" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its response: an extensive attack of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.
The Cycle of Diplomacy and Destruction
The sequence of opposing developments captured the bleak nature of the outgoing year. By day, negotiation efforts are conducted: hopeful statements are released from different nations. Considerable effort is expended on restraining specific proposals. By night, Russian leadership forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, military action persists as the primary tool for achieving "settlement".
Nocturnal Warfare
As the offensive unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's exposure was revealed. Ukraine is able to track missile launches from enemy soil, a capacity enabled by timely intelligence. From vantage locations, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been scrambled to engage hostile cruise missiles flew past – advanced fighter aircraft delivered to Ukraine by European allies.
Shortly after, Kyiv's air-defence systems activated: defensive missiles targeted at a Russian ballistic missile. This was a advanced protection mechanism at work, most likely supplied through Western nations. Every firing jolts you unexpectedly, causing tremors. The instant of fear quickly gives way to resigned acknowledgment: maybe the approaching threat won't strike its target this time, sparing the city from devastation and additional electricity failures.
Ongoing Risks
Following this, a large-caliber weapon engaged a aerial vehicle in the vicinity, part of a defensive team – probably imported technology. Regrettably, the projectiles didn't strike the hostile drone – it continued its flight toward its objective.
Periodically, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the morning news: multiple fatalities, devastation and utility failures in many homes as a result of the night's assault. As always, everyone still went about their day – enduring hostilities. But those 24 hours demonstrated Ukraine's critical military reliance on external assistance – a reliance that European nations are evidently unprepared to substitute in the near term.
Ineffective Peace Efforts
The comprehensive proposal from American leadership generated strong feelings, discussion and profound anxiety – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after previous diplomatic encounters and bilateral conferences.
Every new approach from Washington unfolds according to the same pattern: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, succeeds in resisting. They stabilise the situation but never actually achieve victory. This trend will, undoubtedly, endure.
Strategic Calculations
It is tempting to accuse particular leaders of repeatedly advocating Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the whole story. Washington works based on a principle well known to seasoned negotiators: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have lost on the battlefield. The White House assumes that it is unfeasible to compel Moscow to abandon the areas that it currently occupies in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.
The issue is that while acknowledging this situation, American administration does little to discourage Russia, through diplomacy or military means, from thinking that the current condition will not shift further in its benefit in the months ahead.
Divergent Views
Therefore, Russian leadership is confident that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its partners are approaching exhaustion. Their reason to sign a deal that does not give them the maximum possible gain is close to zero. There may be numerous efforts to achieve ceasefire, but they will carry on as long as Russia's government remains completely certain in the outcome.
On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still persist, gradually sacrificing people and territory but preventing a entire defensive failure until conditions improve in its benefit.
Present Conditions
Realistically, there are no genuine requirements for a ceasefire. Now, subjective factors are coming into play: personal goals to broker a ceasefire and achieve global acclaim, and Kyiv's double obstacles – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to unite the population around the country's interests against any proposal Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their attention does not move to internal issues. And although their objective will now be much harder after current events, it remains highly unlikely that this will modify their basic position.
These opposing factors are influencing discussions.
Summary and Prospects
It took a just a single week to kill the suggested clauses of the latest plan. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by US administration, resistance by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with pacifying measures of diplomats, and finally, recent disclosures, all did their job.
While new plans based on established approaches are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off diplomatic offensives from Washington that are based on Russian demands and demonstrate particular unwillingness to alter the situation, if they maintain solidarity and improve their protective measures at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to defend against evening bombardments will, for the predictable period, primarily depend on continued Western support.
