A decade following the UK entered into a rushed referendum that divided the nation and triggered chaos, a warning is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the same may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering upheavals for which nobody is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two leading writers from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a potentially contentious and transformative public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can build support very quickly," the commentator remarked. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our region remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Intends to Stir Debate
The duo have analysed the governmental, financial and cultural reasons for any constitutional change in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the matter with a roadshow of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles all parties, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We must avoid a referendum on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been clarified because then you end up with an highly split population where the losing side are not reconciled to losing and the those successful don't know quite what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue that moment is approaching, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the prospect, making it uncertain if and when there could be a referendum.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Partisan language for and against unification has masked the lack of serious debate, said the journalist.
"Individuals are often for or against the idea but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to achieve it has largely not occurred. Much has gone on in academia but very few government figures or activists want to engage with even the essentials. As an example, what type of nation would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, neither author supports unification or the status quo. Both writes two pieces that strive for objectivity in presenting the rationale for a unified Ireland and the case against, gathering financial and social data, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Discussions range over national emblems, duties, medical care, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to enlighten and encourage discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there hasn't quite been a discussion," stated the writer. "Debate indicates an acknowledgement of the concept that there might be reasonable perspectives on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where the electorate say they favour unification but oppose paying higher taxes or implementing a new flag to recognise unionists' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin should determine what the offer from Irish nationalism is beyond just saying: 'We seek a united Ireland and we value you'," remarked the commentator.
Likelihood of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a national vote in his lifetime is likely and that it could happen unexpectedly. "There might be just a mad or a poor or a incompetent secretary of state who says: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, legitimate arguments, he stated. "One side will win on this issue and somebody will in the end lose but all factions has has something to acquire from the other's viewpoints."
Appeal for Wider Debate
Westminster must join the discussion, said O’Toole. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It's a British question as much as it is an Irish question."
